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Top stories

German Business Outlook Improves While Consumer Confidence Slides Again

Authors

8

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Alps

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

11862645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11184

10881

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.18%chance

281393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

928

Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?

Dec 30, 9:54 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

80.49%chance

401349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

891

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

22.57%chance

221335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

912

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.81%chance

311250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

711

Will Alphabet spin off Waymo by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 1:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.93%chance

9950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

514

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Sep 8, 3:56 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

68.18%chance

15472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

682

On March 19, 2026, will Alphabet (Google)’s stock price be higher than on February 06, 2026?

Feb 3, 11:23 AMFeb 6, 8:00 AM

50.83%chance

6437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

984

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

Nov 18, 4:35 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?

Nov 18, 5:06 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

4105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

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