Arctic News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 31, 2026

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump remains President of USA

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

123

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A country declares war on Israel

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Iran undergoes a regime change

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

A country declares war on United States

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Any country leaves NATO

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

China invades Taiwan

United States formally declares war on Iran

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

China formally declares war on another country

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Iran loses territory

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Israel loses territory

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

USA leaves NATO

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on another country

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Humans will extinct

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Car chase scene

Urban scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Blue-eyed Bond

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

World capital other than London appears on screen

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Death of a Bond love interest

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Nazis (neo- counts)

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Orgy

Canada is shown on screen

Will feature something that can turn invisible

A hamburger appears on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

Bond goes to space

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Bond plays Russian roulette

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

Pirates

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

The fourth wall is broken

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

13.4 - 13.6

13.6 - 13.8

13.2 - 13.4

13.8 - 14.0

14.0 - 14.2

Above 14.2

Below 12.8

12.8 - 13.0

YES

YES

YES

Will PALADIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SILENT TACTIC be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will NEARLY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will RENEGADE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CHIEF WALLABEE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will COMMANDMENT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will NAPOLEON SOLO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will FURTHER ADO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will LITMUS TEST be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will MR. A. P. be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will STRATEGIC RISK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BAYTOWN DREAMER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SLEEPINGONFREEDOM be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will OSCAR'S HOPE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will QUALITY MISCHIEF be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CARSON STREET be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will MY WORLD be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BUETANE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will OTTINHO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SECURED FREEDOM be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SO HAPPY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BRANT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SPICE RUNNER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will INTREPIDO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will INCREDIBOLT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will UNIVERSE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BLACKOUT TIME be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SATONO VOYAGE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CANNONEER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will TALKIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will COMPORT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BOYD be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BALBOA be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will COURTING be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will FINAL SCORE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will DESERT GATE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BLACKSMITH be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will VERY CONNECTED be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will GOLDEN TEMPO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will PYROMANCER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will PLUTARCH be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will ARCTIC BEAST be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will TIME FOR MUSIC be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will ESSENTIAL TIME be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will ROYALAMERICAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will D'CODE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will IRON HONOR be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will ENGLISHMAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SOCKDOLAGER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CHIP HONCHO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will EXPRESS KID be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will RANCHO SANTA FE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SCAR SHIP be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CROSSINGTHECHANNEL be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CROWN THE BUCKEYE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will EWING be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will LIBERTY NATIONAL be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will MESQUITE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will MOB be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will THUNDER BUCK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will THUNDEROUSLY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will WAYMARK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will WHITE TIGER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will JACKSON HOLE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SIX SPEED be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will DEVON ISLAND be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will BROTHERLY LOVE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will RAMMAAS be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will DUKE OF IMMATIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will TALK TO ME JIMMY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will GRITTINESS be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will SCHOOLYARDSUPERMAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will CIRCLE TAP be a '26 KY Derby starter?

Will STAR SWEEPER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_the_zone

Expansion of military bases (also in accordance with european goals)

Ensure future safety of arctic shipping lines

Legacy of expanding US territory (like Jefferson, Polk, and Johnson).

Mining for Rare earths, ores or coal

To show off and manifest his wannabe superpower status in the world.

Server farms and data centers (such as for AI)

52. State of America (or 51. if Canada successfully rejects)

Ending NATO by attacking allies

Help build Praxis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Praxis_(proposed_city)

Disrupt the GIUK Gap

YES

YES

Public AGI Deployment

Ice-free Arctic Summer

NO