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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
7145
4676
OptionProbability
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Sudanese Civil War ends
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
3055
812
OptionVotes
YES
NO
467
21
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1046
956
OptionVotes
YES
NO
407
106
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1033
831
OptionProbability
Public AGI Deployment
Ice-free Arctic Summer
SpaceX Starship Mars Landing
54
34
12
OptionProbability
Ensure future safety of arctic shipping lines
Mining for Rare earths, ores or coal
Server farms and data centers (such as for AI)
Expansion of military bases (also in accordance with european goals)
52. State of America (or 51. if Canada successfully rejects)
Olympic Winter Games
73
60
59
43
24
17
OptionVotes
NO
YES
139
91
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
84
