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Prediction markets for area

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

22.64%chance

13456982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

1577

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14347

7601

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

11911172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1974

1824

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

596835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13221

7577

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

312946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3295

2155

Will Waymo give public driverless rides on a freeway in the SF Bay Area by the end of 2025? [description]

Dec 10, 10:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.71%chance

172594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1815

551

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.49%chance

91590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

477

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Dec 13, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.07%chance

361384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

735

Will I be the subject of a Craigslist Missed Connection in the Bay Area before the end of 2025?

Jun 13, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.61%chance

151034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1542

649

Frontier Valley breaks ground in the Bay Area by EOY2026?

Jul 3, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.29%chance

5853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1815

551

Will I be able to purchase internet with speeds of 500 Gbps in the NYC area by the end of 2029?

Apr 10, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.65%chance

15493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

893

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