area News
Prediction markets for area
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
22.64%chance
13456982
OptionVotes
1580
1577
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
27.82%chance
3118945
OptionVotes
14347
7601
Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.05%chance
11911172
OptionVotes
1974
1824
Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?
Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
63.71%chance
596835
OptionVotes
13221
7577
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
25%chance
312946
OptionVotes
3295
2155
Will Waymo give public driverless rides on a freeway in the SF Bay Area by the end of 2025? [description]
Dec 10, 10:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
76.71%chance
172594
OptionVotes
1815
551
2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.
Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
61%chance
131668
OptionVotes
1251
800
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?
Mar 14, 8:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.49%chance
91590
OptionVotes
2099
477
Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
Dec 13, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.07%chance
361384
OptionVotes
1406
735
Will I be the subject of a Craigslist Missed Connection in the Bay Area before the end of 2025?
Jun 13, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.61%chance
151034
OptionVotes
1542
649
Frontier Valley breaks ground in the Bay Area by EOY2026?
Jul 3, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.29%chance
5853
OptionVotes
1815
551
Will I be able to purchase internet with speeds of 500 Gbps in the NYC area by the end of 2029?
Apr 10, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.65%chance
15493
OptionVotes
1076
893