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Prediction markets for ARENA

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10330

9674

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

20.51%chance

266550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1968

508

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Mar 9, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

323459

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

DeepSeek

Tencent

Meta

Alibaba

Cohere

100

100

65

48

21

17

16

15

14

Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Dec 19, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76%chance

91954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

172

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91805

OptionProbability

Anthropic / Claude

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

DeepSeek

Mistral

Microsoft

Meta / Llama

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

100

69

45

41

26

15

10

9

8

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

847

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13815

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

55

43

40

38

38

35

34

17

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

May 8, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

629

16

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

When will the Crypto.com Arena be renamed?

Nov 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87

57

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