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Prediction markets for ARENA

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.82%chance

2511131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10330

9674

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

21.37%chance

256500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1918

521

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Mar 9, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

262211

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Tencent

Meta

Alibaba

Cohere

100

70

51

46

22

20

17

17

14

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81790

OptionProbability

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

DeepSeek

Anthropic / Claude

Mistral

Microsoft

Meta / Llama

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

75

45

41

33

26

15

10

9

8

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.2%chance

21988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

847

Will Claude Opus 4.6 be profitable on Prediction Arena during its first 14 days of trading?

Feb 5, 9:02 PMApr 1, 7:59 PM

53%chance

8916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13815

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Meta

Cohere

55

43

40

38

38

35

34

17

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Mar 9, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13780

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Mistral

Cohere

82

64

62

34

34

34

30

24

18

Will Grok 4.2 be profitable on Prediction Arena end of February 2026?

Jan 27, 5:11 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

56.75%chance

10626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will I make Mythic on Arena without spending any money?

Mar 1, 6:05 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.93%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

203

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

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