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Prediction markets for Aries
OptionProbability
95
93
89
79
60
27
12
OptionProbability
75
63
51
39
21
11
8
4
OptionVotes
1036
945
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
Jul 11, 7:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
46.38%chance
575644
OptionVotes
1437
784
Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)?
Jan 9, 10:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
92448
OptionProbability
18
17
14
10
9
8
6
6
6
6
1
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
May 30, 5:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
9.01%chance
182312
OptionVotes
3178
315
OptionProbability
59
58
57
55
55
54
53
53
52
52
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
47
46
45
44
41
39
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?
Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
43.83%chance
5256
OptionVotes
1132
883
OptionVotes
1063
968
OptionProbability
54
20
20
6
Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?
Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
52.36%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954