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Prediction markets for Ascension

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.99%chance

7516436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12246

8166

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.53%chance

399304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

492

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Jan 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

315630

OptionProbability

No, Jesus Christ will not return before 2027

Yes, Jesus Christ will return before 2027

99

1

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

233625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2465

406

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

172227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

What will be the best Slay the Spire 2 win streak one month after the game's full release?

May 23, 2:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31420

OptionProbability

Above 4

Above 6

Above 8

Above 10

Above 12

Above 14

Above 16

Above 18

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

95

87

75

65

55

45

35

25

15

10

5

When Roblox gets a new leader, will they have at least 3 years of experience working there?

Jun 26, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

81005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

47

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?

Jul 4, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

7711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2028?

Jul 6, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

13630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

No specific grade

29

29

21

21

El meteórico ascenso de Cardano: la actividad en cadena apunta a un aumento alcista

Nov 4, 2:09 PM

00

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