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Prediction markets for Ascension

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.07%chance

9050238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

34067

2935

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84.59%chance

439809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2343

427

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Jan 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

325631

OptionProbability

No, Jesus Christ will not return before 2027

Yes, Jesus Christ will return before 2027

99

1

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

233625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2465

406

What will be the best Slay the Spire 2 win streak one month after the game's full release?

May 23, 2:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31420

OptionProbability

Above 4

Above 6

Above 8

Above 10

Above 12

Above 14

Above 16

Above 18

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

95

87

75

65

55

45

35

25

15

10

5

When Roblox gets a new leader, will they have at least 3 years of experience working there?

Jun 26, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

81005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

47

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?

Jul 4, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

7711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

No specific grade

29

29

21

21

Highest Slay the Spire 2 (Ascension 10) win rate on Epoch AI's SpireClimb benchmark on November 30, 2026?

Oct 29, 5:31 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

Below 35% (GPT-6 Astra's 34.7% still on top)

35% to under 45%

45% to under 60%

60% or higher

40

25

20

15

El meteórico ascenso de Cardano: la actividad en cadena apunta a un aumento alcista

Nov 4, 2:09 PM

00

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