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In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70%chance

24101760924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9056

2667

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.06%chance

18031036435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36242

6103

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

128565987

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

458380101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3693

1551

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

14.94%chance

79197324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145460

20045

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85%chance

495196604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4992

1126

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

220179562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51%chance

20846904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

983

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

207035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14677

6813

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

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