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Baldwin News

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18482135296

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

Jon Stewart

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Michelle Obama

Raphael Warnock

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Hunter Biden

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

10051277744

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

No 2028 Election

Thomas Massie

Steve Bannon

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Tim Walz

Mike Gallagher

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

Elon Musk

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

382134199

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio

Josh Hawley

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Mark Kelly

Ron DeSantis

Wes Moore

Stephen Miller

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elise Stefanik

J. B. Pritzker

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Mark Cuban

Donald Trump Jr.

Sam Altman

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Kevin Stitt

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Jeff Jackson

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Erika Kirk

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tucker Carlson

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 3:27 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

19886534

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Jimmy Kimmel

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Jack Smith

Vaccine mandates

Ann Selzer

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

The New York Times (NYT)

Universities

Paper straws

Leakers

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

National Institutes of Health

Solar Energy

Miles Taylor

Alejandro Mayorkas

Stephen Colbert

John Bolton

Wind Energy

James Comey

John Brennan

Panama

JB Pritzker

Public Libraries

Alexander Vindman

Progressive YouTube Influencers

Tucker Carlson

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Bruce Springsteen

Zohran Mamdani

Nancy Pelosi

The Atlantic

the National Archives

Disney

Any professional sports league

The American Psychiatric Association

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

Seth Myers

Bill Barr

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Michael Cohen

Mariann Edgar Budde

Wikipedia

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Ken Klippenstein

The American Medical Association

Christopher Steele

John Kelly

Emmanuel Macron

Jeff Bezos

Narendra Modi

Greenland

Any Manifold User

E. Jean Carroll

Fluoride

TIME magazine

Joe Biden

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

Brad Raffensperger

WIRED Magazine

Kristi Noem

Liz Cheney

The San Diego Zoo

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Any fashion or cosmetics brand

Mike Pence

Barack Obama

Russell Vought

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Jezebel (website)

Black Nationals

SSRIs

Beyoncé

Pete Hegseth

Rosie O'Donnell

Alec Baldwin

Taylor Swift

BlueSky

Not Elected

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

Steve Wynn

100

MLB Player Regular Season (2026) Home Runs

Dec 1, 3:40 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

2133007

OptionProbability

Will Byron Buxton hit 20+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 10+ home runs?

Will Bryce Harper hit 10+ home runs?

Will Gunnar Henderson hit 10+ home runs?

Will Yordan Alvarez hit 10+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 10+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 10+ home runs?

Will Brandon Lowe hit 10+ home runs?

Will Munetaka Murakami hit 10+ home runs?

Will Kyle Schwarber hit 30+ home runs?

Will Brent Rooker hit 10+ home runs?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 10+ home runs?

Will Jackson Chourio hit 10+ home runs?

Will Jake Bauers hit 10+ home runs?

Will Ryan O'Hearn hit 10+ home runs?

Will Jordan Walker hit 20+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 10+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 20+ home runs?

Will Yordan Alvarez hit 30+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 20+ home runs?

Will any player hit 40+ home runs?

Will Juan Soto hit 20+ home runs?

Will Byron Buxton hit 30+ home runs?

Will Jacob Young hit 10+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 20+ home runs?

Will any player hit 50+ home runs?

Will Francisco Alvarez hit 10+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 30+ home runs?

Will Bryce Harper hit 20+ home runs?

Will Kyle Schwarber hit 40+ home runs?

Will Munetaka Murakami hit 30+ home runs?

Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 10+ home runs?

Will Matt Olson hit 30+ home runs?

Will Brady House hit 10+ home runs?

Will Junior Caminero hit 30+ home runs?

Will Nick Kurtz hit 30+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 20+ home runs?

Will Kyle Schwarber hit 50+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 20+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 30+ home runs?

Will Juan Soto hit 30+ home runs?

Will Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 10+ home runs?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 20+ home runs?

Will Junior Caminero hit 40+ home runs?

Will Ben Rice hit 40+ home runs?

Will Yordan Alvarez hit 40+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 30+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 30+ home runs?

Will Gunnar Henderson hit 30+ home runs?

Will Bryce Harper hit 30+ home runs?

Will Colson Montgomery hit 40+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 40+ home runs?

Will Byron Buxton hit 40+ home runs?

Will Julio Rodriguez hit 30+ home runs?

Will any player hit 60+ home runs?

Will Joey Wiemer hit 10+ home runs?

Will Jake Baldwin hit 30+ home runs?

Will Mike Trout hit 40+ home runs?

Will Munetaka Murakami hit 40+ home runs?

Will Mickey Moniak hit 40+ home runs?

Will Nick Kurtz hit 40+ home runs?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 30+ home runs?

Will Matt Olson hit 40+ home runs?

Will Brandon Lowe hit 40+ home runs?

Will Sal Frelick hit 10+ home runs?

Will Shea Langeliers hit 40+ home runs?

Will Christian Walker hit 40+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 50+ home runs?

Will Brent Rooker hit 30+ home runs?

Will James Wood hit 40+ home runs?

Will Elly De La Cruz hit 40+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 30+ home runs?

Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30+ home runs?

Will Hunter Goodman hit 40+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 40+ home runs?

Will Jake Bauers hit 30+ home runs?

Will Nick Kurtz hit 50+ home runs?

Will Jackson Chourio hit 30+ home runs?

Will Junior Caminero hit 50+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 40+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 50+ home runs?

Will Munetaka Murakami hit 50+ home runs?

Will Byron Buxton hit 50+ home runs?

Will Francisco Alvarez hit 40+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 40+ home runs?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. hit 40+ home runs?

Will Brent Rooker hit 40+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 50+ home runs?

Will any player hit 70+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 50+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 40+ home runs?

Will Junior Caminero hit 60+ home runs?

Will Brady House hit 30+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 60+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 50+ home runs?

Will Pete Alonso hit 60+ home runs?

Will Byron Buxton hit 60+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 70+ home runs?

Will Ryan O'Hearn hit 60+ home runs?

Will Munetaka Murakami hit 60+ home runs?

Will Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 40+ home runs?

Will Kyle Schwarber hit 60+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 60+ home runs?

Will Nick Kurtz hit 60+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 70+ home runs?

Will Brady House hit 40+ home runs?

Will Cal Raleigh hit 60+ home runs?

Will Aaron Judge hit 60+ home runs?

Will Anthony Volpe hit 40+ home runs?

Will Eugenio Suárez hit 70+ home runs?

Will any player hit 80+ home runs?

Will Shohei Ohtani hit 80+ home runs?

100

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

11728656

OptionProbability

J.B. Pritzker

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Cory Booker

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Amy Klobuchar

Chris Murphy

Raphael Warnock

Deval Patrick

Gina Raimondo

J. B. Pritzker

Steve Bullock

Mark Kelly

Andy Beshear

Ro Khanna

Maura Healey

Chris Coons

Jeff Jackson

Catherine Cortez Masto

Katie Hobbs

Tim Walz

Tina Kotek

Abigail Spanberger

Michael Bennet

Julián Castro

Beto O'Rourke

Bill de Blasio

Jay Inslee

Jared Polis

Roy Cooper

Martin O'Malley

Cornel West

Tom Steyer

Wayne Messam

Kirsten Gillibrand

Mitch Landrieu

Tammy Duckworth

Tammy Baldwin

Tim Kaine

Marianne Williamson

Eric Swalwell

Wes Moore

John Fetterman

Dean Phillips

Michelle Obama

Laphonza Butler

Tulsi Gabbard

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II

Who will the Trump administration go after?

Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

5522811

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Dr. Fauci

LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

January 6th Committee

Jack Smith

Blinken

Jimmy Kimmel

Alejandro Mayorkas

Fluoride

The Bidens

Miles Taylor

Zohran Mamdani

Jerome Powell

Bruce Springsteen

Merrick Garland

Elon Musk

Michael Cohen

Christopher Steele

Texas Democrats (as a group)

VAWA self-petitioners

Liz Cheney

Furries

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Vindman

FDIC

Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

Susie Wiles

Beyonce

Brad Raffensperger

Mike Pence

Black Nationals

E. Jean Carroll

Rosie O'Donnell

Jeff Bezos

Taylor Swift

Alec Baldwin

Kevin McCarthy

Karoline Leavitt

100

👒What will happen before Luffy finds the One Piece? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 14, 10:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9715617

OptionProbability

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)

chat gpt 5 releases

Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Imu Face Reveal

bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google

Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google

the end of 2024

the end of 2025

Ides of March 2025

Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered

Bitcoin reaches 100k usd

Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece

Pluton revealed or used or production started

Gta 6 comes out

Taylor Swift married

manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

King Charles no longer king of UK

ChatGPT 6 released

Sanji finds all blue

Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro

OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained

Noam chomsky passes away

kaidou is seen again in the manga

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

one of the straw hats dies

arlong is seen again in the manga

UFC 350 takes place

Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums

Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop

nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)

dragon ball super manga ends

Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200

ukraine joins EU

manifold reaches 3000 engaged users

donald trump spends a day in prison

human sets foot on moon again

Pigs Fly

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

ukraine joins NATO

hunter biden serves a day in jail

Destiny retires from streaming

6th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 end of life date

someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold

Buggy the clown dies

Singularity happens

Assange extradited to the USA

100

Who will be President of the United States on January 21, 2037?

Apr 2, 3:33 PMJan 23, 5:59 AM

6314552

OptionProbability

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jamie Dimon

J. D. Vance

Kamala Harris

Ted Cruz

Gavin Newsom

Tulsi Gabbard

Cory Booker

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Gretchen Whitmer

Pete Buttigieg

Tim Scott

J. B. Pritzker

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Elise Stefanik

Josh Shapiro

Mike Pence

Kristi Noem

Andy Beshear

Spencer Cox

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Jackson Hinkle

Dean Phillips

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Aella

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Xi Jinping

Tammy Duckworth

Ivanka Trump

Mike Johnson

Tucker Carlson

Mark Zuckerberg

An AGI

Jared Kushner

Zvi Mowshowitz

Curtis Yarvin

Mike Dunleavy

Katie Hobbs

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Jared Polis

Brian Kemp

Scott Perry

Joe Biden

Josh Green

Eric Holcomb

Kim Reynolds

Jeff Landry

Wes Moore

Maura Healey

Tim Walz

Tate Reeves

Mike Parson

Greg Gianforte

Christopher Sununu

Jim Pillen

Joe Lombardo

Phil Murphy

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Kathy Hochul

Roy Cooper

Doug Burgum

Kevin Stitt

Tina Kotek

Bill Lee

Greg Abbott

Phil Scott

Mark Gordon

Ro Khanna

Tammy Baldwin

Taylor Swift

Josh Hawley

Raphael Warnock

Luigi Mangione

Chuck Norris

Robert Francis Prevost

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Feb 22, 6:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

399030

OptionProbability

Taylor Swift engaged

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

Chat gpt 6 releases

Taylor Swift married

King Charles no longer king of UK

Windows 12 released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

5th bitcoin halving

Haunted Chocolatier releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

Star Citizen releases

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

a Human has died on moon

100

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)

Feb 6, 8:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.21%chance

323267

OptionVotes

YES

1255

898

🪦What will happen before Noam Chomsky dies? [ADD RESPONSES]

Dec 29, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

281239

OptionProbability

death stranding 2 releases

bitcoin reaches 80k

end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)

Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access

Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )

Silksong

mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube

Alec Baldwin case ends

Trump running mate announced

2024 election is called by AP

The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates

Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Solar panels removed from the White House (again).

tortured poet's department releases

the end of manifest 2024

the start of manifest 2024

Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something

julian Assange extradited to usa

spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases

The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced

gta 6 releases

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)

Joe Biden passes away or is murdered

Windows 12 released

The last case of Guinea worm in humans

binance cease operating

trump found guilty of a crime

the ukraine russia war ends

human walks on the moon again

azerbaijian invades armenia

destiny goes on joe rogan

Ukraine joins NATO

first female president

100