Banning News

TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Mar 13, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22089659

OptionProbability

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

12196

9630

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

19342

7418

Will the US ban feeding chicken shit to cows or pigs in 2025?

Dec 25, 10:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.07%chance

2311802

OptionVotes

YES

21137

4920

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

YES

2816

612

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.11%chance

1414725

OptionVotes

YES

3527

1816

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Aug 14, 11:40 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM

71.65%chance

613410

OptionVotes

YES

1607

712

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.21%chance

983383

OptionVotes

YES

1883

1419

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.13%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

3978

1336

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

Nov 8, 10:07 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

27.48%chance

212952

OptionVotes

YES

1624

616

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Apr 24, 11:45 AMSep 9, 3:59 AM

33.32%chance

241996

OptionVotes

YES

2718

1516

Will the FDA ban xylitol before 2030?

Jun 14, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.28%chance

91660

OptionVotes

YES

2114

473

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TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will the US ban feeding chicken shit to cows or pigs in 2025?

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Will the FDA ban xylitol before 2030?

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