Bari News

Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters

4 months ago

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

52.77%chance

103119381

OptionVotes

YES

1057

946

2025 Bingo Card [ADD RESPONSES]

Dec 30, 4:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5312060

OptionProbability

Trump says Xiaohongshu (or tries to)

A law granting legal rights to AI systems is passed in a UN Member State or a US State

Another Pandemic

Major Volcanic Eruption (≥6 on VEI scale)

Bitcoin Market Cap > US GDP (or this happens with another cryptocurrency)

X (Formerly Twitter) revives Vine

X 8.00 Solar flare [or higher]

A large-scale cyberattack cripples financial systems, causing a global economic meltdown

Elon Flips to Democrat

OpenAI Nationalized

US Buys or Invades Greenland

Discovery of Alien Life

GTA 6 released

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

393526

OptionVotes

YES

1625

615

Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?

Jan 27, 12:54 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

112058

OptionProbability

Tyler Cowen

Sam Altman

Demis Hassabis

Dario Amodei

Paul Christiano

Geoffrey Hinton

Zvi Mowshowitz

Marc Andreessen

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Mark Zuckerberg

Dwarkesh Patel

Dan Hendrycks

Yoshua Bengio

Keir Starmer

Gwern

Jensen Huang

Donald Trump

48th President of the United States

Ilya Sutskever

Chris Olah

Richard Sutton

The Pope

Vladimir Putin

Yann LeCun

Sacha Baron Cohen

Greta Thunberg

Gary Marcus

100

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Did Netanyahu knowingly receive money from the Qatari government?

Mar 19, 11:52 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

82.13%chance

71206

OptionVotes

YES

2144

466

Weiss/Taibbi/Schellenberger will offer a Mea Culpa on the twitter Files before End of 2025

Nov 25, 3:45 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6.48%chance

3280

OptionVotes

YES

380

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

Coinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)

Dec 18, 5:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

54%chance

16177

OptionVotes

YES

108

Any Twitter Files figure becomes 60 Minutes correspondent before July 2026?

Oct 6, 6:19 PMJul 1, 5:47 AM

63.33%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

131

Will Bari Weiss run for public office before the end of 2045?

Feb 15, 4:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.63%chance

594

OptionVotes

YES

185

Bari Weiss out as CBS News editor-in-chief before July 2026?

Oct 3, 3:14 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.74%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

157

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Prediction markets for Bari

Prediction markets for Bari

Prediction markets for Bari

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

2025 Bingo Card [ADD RESPONSES]

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Did Netanyahu knowingly receive money from the Qatari government?

Weiss/Taibbi/Schellenberger will offer a Mea Culpa on the twitter Files before End of 2025

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Coinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)

Any Twitter Files figure becomes 60 Minutes correspondent before July 2026?

Will Bari Weiss run for public office before the end of 2045?

Bari Weiss out as CBS News editor-in-chief before July 2026?

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