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Prediction markets for BART

Will BART achieve avg weekday ridership >500,000 in any month before 2026

Nov 9, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.2%chance

123648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4339

478

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.33%chance

21550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

392

How old will Cimorene be when she's able to travel to a BART station unsupervised?

Feb 11, 7:56 AMNov 10, 12:59 AM

34.29%chance

14248

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1036

921

Will Bart Kay be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

7202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

114

Will a wild duck make a mating attempt on Barton Rhodes (@bmorphism) by 2050?

Aug 22, 6:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.82%chance

3160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will Barton Rhodes (@bmorphism) end up in a relationship/falling in love with a duck/mallard/wood duck?

Aug 22, 3:52 AMAug 29, 6:59 AM

57.62%chance

4139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will the new BART Transbay tube be completed by 2040

Jan 6, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.44%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

97

Will the BART station at San Jose Diridon be in service on December 1, 2030?

Jan 9, 8:54 PMDec 2, 7:59 AM

20.82%chance

395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

Will BART trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:41 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will MBTA trains on the Boston red line finally have PM2.5 levels lower than 10 ug/m^3 (like BART trains) by EOY 2027?

Jan 22, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.27%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

56

45

Will Yoyo Yuan, Barton Rhodes, @viemccoy, @adic_9, Jose Ricon, and Jacob Cole all go SAILING together?

Aug 26, 1:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the 19th Oakland Bart station inside reduce its avg pm2.5 levels to below 13 by eoy2028

Nov 16, 9:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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