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Prediction markets for BART

Will BART achieve avg weekday ridership >500,000 in any month before 2026

Nov 9, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.2%chance

123648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4339

478

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.49%chance

11250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2250

444

How old will Cimorene be when she's able to travel to a BART station unsupervised?

Feb 11, 7:56 AMNov 10, 12:59 AM

34.29%chance

14248

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1036

921

Will Bart Kay be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

7202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

114

Will the new BART Transbay tube be completed by 2040

Jan 6, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.44%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

97

Will the BART station at San Jose Diridon be in service on December 1, 2030?

Jan 9, 8:54 PMDec 2, 7:59 AM

20.82%chance

395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

Will BART trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:41 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Barton Rhodes have a BIRTHDAY PARTY in 2025?

Apr 3, 3:12 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

71.14%chance

357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Will MBTA trains on the Boston red line finally have PM2.5 levels lower than 10 ug/m^3 (like BART trains) by EOY 2027?

Jan 22, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.27%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

56

45

Will Kliment serafimov and Barton Rhodes both hackathon together by 2030

Sep 21, 4:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Barton Rhodes (@bmorphism) end up having babby (#BartonBabby) by 2035?

Aug 25, 11:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the 19th Oakland Bart station inside reduce its avg pm2.5 levels to below 13 by eoy2028

Nov 16, 9:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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