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Prediction markets for Base

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

7%chance

5392340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

815

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

33080983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?

Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM

9.98%chance

13158142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30027

3330

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 2, 6:27 PMJan 1, 9:00 PM

5.51%chance

4331017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3437

667

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.22%chance

3310803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

618

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

15.15%chance

575571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?

Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.37%chance

223368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

664

Will there be a Moon base by 2040?

Jun 24, 11:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.17%chance

392233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

881

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will Google Open Source a 7b or larger model based on their Titans Architecture before 2026?

Mar 8, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

8308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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