Base Camp News

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

1088

922

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

61834

OptionProbability

Other

Menlo Park, CA

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

San Jose, CA

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

33%chance

81122

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

81012

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

Other

NYC

SLC

Will I enter a relationship by the end of summer 2026?

Apr 1, 2:36 AMSep 21, 11:59 PM

30.04%chance

19609

OptionVotes

YES

153

האם האירועים הבאים יקרו כמתוכנן?

Mar 19, 1:43 PMDec 31, 1:37 PM

8488

OptionProbability

סמינר מדליסטים 1 ב10-14.5

סמינר מדליסטים 2 ב21-25.6

שבוע עבודה ב24-26.3 ו 29-30.3

אינבו ב15-17.4

100

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

YES

117

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district

Jun 4, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4340

OptionProbability

Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent)

Other

Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?

May 24, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.43%chance

13230

OptionVotes

YES

144

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

Base Camp News

Prediction markets for Base Camp

Prediction markets for Base Camp

Prediction markets for Base Camp

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Where will I live in October 2026?

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Will I enter a relationship by the end of summer 2026?

האם האירועים הבאים יקרו כמתוכנן?

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 38th State Senate district

Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

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