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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57%chance

19241446290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4997

3766

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369429

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72174362

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-V4

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

87

79

78

75

67

65

44

39

27

24

22

14

13

13

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, Low Resolution

May 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

182105091

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14892319

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

47.34%chance

7633056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

749

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

33.13%chance

13328769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10595

8583

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.68%chance

9321955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

650

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

7312380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.75%chance

194639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1326

754

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.91%chance

164095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

47.33%chance

5721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10549

9480

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