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Top stories

SFACC and SF SPCA Waive Adoption Fees Through August 24 Amid National Dog Day and Rising Drug Tourism Concerns

SFACC and SF SPCA Waive Adoption Fees Through August 24 Amid National Dog Day and Rising Drug Tourism Concerns

Authors

7

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Berkeley

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

8.25%chance

308483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

147

When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from the Oakland airport to Berkeley's campus?

Sep 25, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

257176

OptionProbability

in 2027

between October 1 and December 31, 2026

2028 and onwards

between Jan 1 and March 31, 2026

between April 1 and June 30, 2026

between July 1 and September 30, 2026

by March 31, 2025

between April 1 and June 30, 2025

between July 1 and September 30, 2025

between October 1 and December 31, 2025

43

20

17

5

5

5

1

1

1

1

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

2%chance

44968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5964

748

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 5:42 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

16.45%chance

263386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

855

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:00 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

79.53%chance

141391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

944

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

75.22%chance

221354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Feb 21, 4:23 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

111045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

495

20

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

83.19%chance

19887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

978

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Feb 21, 4:24 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

7%chance

9685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:58 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

62.4%chance

7255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

138

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

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