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Prediction markets for Berks

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

68.18%chance

273957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

933

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 5:42 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

16.45%chance

263386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

855

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.32%chance

31500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2497

862

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

75.22%chance

221354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

913

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:00 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

73.62%chance

121135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

892

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033?

Jan 18, 5:14 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.25%chance

12812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

940

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

80.25%chance

17737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

841

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

31.67%chance

13674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

805

Will Warren Buffett either retire from Berkshire Hathaway or pass away before the end of 2025?

Nov 9, 11:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

91.07%chance

8659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

319

31

Will Waymo serve any part of Berkeley at the end of 2025?

Dec 12, 3:36 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

7.66%chance

12456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

29

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