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Prediction markets for Berks

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

6.15%chance

308833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3263

120

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

2%chance

44968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5964

748

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 5:42 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

16.45%chance

263386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

855

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:00 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

79.53%chance

141391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

944

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

75.22%chance

221354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

913

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Feb 21, 4:18 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

1%chance

81048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Feb 21, 4:23 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

111045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

495

20

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

83.19%chance

19887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

978

Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033?

Jan 18, 5:14 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.25%chance

12812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

940

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

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