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Switzerland Offers Putin Immunity for Geneva Ukraine Peace Talks
Authors
38
9 months ago
Prediction markets for Bern
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036
Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
9.14%chance
421858
OptionVotes
31528
3172
OptionVotes
6261
797
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.29%chance
103100
OptionVotes
3567
280
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before 2030?
Dec 16, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.72%chance
492804
OptionVotes
1241
575
Will Bernie Sanders live to see a human walk on the moon again?
Mar 24, 6:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.59%chance
461944
OptionVotes
1117
837
Will Bernie Sanders withdraw his endorsement of Graham Platner (or will Platner drop out before he does so)?
Oct 22, 2:14 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM
1%chance
141111
OptionVotes
995
10
OptionProbability
100
99
83
76
76
72
72
72
50
41
41
41
34
Will Egan Bernal win another Grand Tour in his career?
Jun 18, 6:40 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM
5.64%chance
6381
OptionVotes
409
24
Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 30, 9:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.73%chance
7214
OptionVotes
1030
834
Will Bernard Arnault (CEO of Louis Vuitton) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Mar 21, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.13%chance
4112
OptionVotes
202
55
Bernie Sanders V Jeremy Corbyn. Who’ll leave elected office first?
Feb 18, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
317
OptionProbability
54
46
Will Henry Bass, Alex Zhu, cassox, Anjan Katta, Sam Bernstein, or Luca Rade get to meet jay gunkelman OR cayden pierce?
Sep 21, 6:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100