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Prediction markets for Bor

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

"AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027?

Apr 3, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.96%chance

222107585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2002

499

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

Mar 4, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

23695344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35095

3769

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

61.01%chance

16152137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

1079

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

May 12, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.75%chance

8024904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

936

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

14624745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9509

5616

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17426

6658

Mammal born from artificial womb by 2030?

Dec 31, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.37%chance

12112414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2617

1317

What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

234200

OptionProbability

Born in 2030

Born in 2020

Born in 2010

Born in 2000

Born in 1990

Born in 1980

Born in 1970

Born in 1960

Born in 1950

20

15

13

12

10

8

7

4

2

Will a dog walk on Mars before the first baby is born on Mars?

Mar 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.52%chance

391835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2184

1848

Will a human baby be born via IVG before 2030?

Aug 14, 5:12 AMJan 1, 7:00 AM

50.47%chance

401750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2728

2671

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