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Prediction markets for Borders

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

Mar 4, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

23695344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35095

3769

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

Mar 9, 10:33 PMOct 31, 6:59 AM

12.5%chance

1818195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2423

581

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

157

Will "Greater Idaho" come to pass by 2025? (Resolves YES if Idaho's borders expand)

May 17, 9:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1%chance

164484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5379

861

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.77%chance

342241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

785

Will Canada close its border with the US to civilian travel due to a pandemic disease by Feb 1, 2029?

Feb 24, 7:15 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

17.04%chance

81351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

453

Will US Border Patrol seize more fentanyl in 2025 than in 2024?

Dec 18, 12:47 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM

32.72%chance

161270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

697

Will there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?

Oct 2, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

21610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

895

Will the United States close borders by 2040?

Jan 29, 7:40 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

13.57%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

178

The TSA or U.S. Border Security will experiment with automating their ID checks / Q&A using voice synthesis and speech recognition before the end of 2026

Dec 27, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

8119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

155

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