Bountiful News

At the end of One Piece, which five pirates will have the highest recorded bounties of all time?

Dec 28, 11:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21838058

OptionProbability

Monkey D Luffy

Baggy

Buggy the Clown

Roronoa Zoro

Blackbeard / Marshall D Teach

Red Hair Shanks

Gol D Roger

Rocks D. Xebec

Eustass Kid

Mihawk

Monkey D Dragon

Usopp

Sanji

Nico Robin

Trafalgar D. Water Law

Whitebeard / Edward Newgate

Kaido

Edward weevil

Tony Tony Chopper

Big Mom / Charlotte Linlin

Franky

Crocodile

Mr 4 / Babe

Lucky Roux

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

17554

5697

Luffy bounty reaches 5 billion after the egg head incident

Jul 3, 10:17 PMJul 3, 10:17 PM

26.45%chance

227156

OptionVotes

YES

1668

600

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

37.81%chance

92116

OptionVotes

YES

1283

780

Aella finds husband via her $100k bounty?

Apr 22, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.83%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Luffy's bounty increases after Elbaf?

Oct 4, 10:38 AMJan 1, 10:36 AM

97.76%chance

61000

OptionVotes

YES

660

🏳️‍⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)

Jan 29, 2:04 PMDec 31, 2:04 PM

9933

OptionProbability

At least one person who gets targeted by this rule will turn out to be cisgender / not trans (will N/A if nobody gets targeted)

At least one bathroom incident in Kansas will be reported on social media (eg Bluesky) or news source

Public sanctimony. Private indulgence. One or more of the architects are found to be hypocrites and engaging in projection, and are doxed revelling in flagrante delicto in the very non-normative intimacies they seek to criminalise.

The bill will be vetoed by Gov. Laura Kelley or her office

The bill will be (at least temporarily) halted by courts in 2026. (Resolves N/A if bill killed before taking effect.)

The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority. (Resolves N/A if no veto)

There are any social media or news reports of bathroom guards, inspections, or enforcement systems in Kansas in connection with gender

At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and will lead to an attempted prosecution

At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and lead to an attempted prosecution, that will lead to a bounty payout or settlement

At least one person will have their government ID confiscated or revoked, as reported on social media or news

We can find reporting that tourism in Kansas in 2026 will drop by at least 5%, and this bill is named as a potential contributor in that reporting

Will the Tick Tock Clock upwarp $1000 bounty be claimed before 2036?

Sep 23, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.51%chance

4665

OptionVotes

YES

1165

101

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

1147

957

Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.)

Oct 8, 6:47 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

52.09%chance

17524

OptionVotes

YES

1073

904

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

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At the end of One Piece, which five pirates will have the highest recorded bounties of all time?

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Luffy bounty reaches 5 billion after the egg head incident

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Aella finds husband via her $100k bounty?

Luffy's bounty increases after Elbaf?

🏳️‍⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)

Will the Tick Tock Clock upwarp $1000 bounty be claimed before 2036?

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.)

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

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