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Prediction markets for Bountiful

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17554

5697

Luffy bounty reaches 5 billion after the egg head incident

Jul 3, 10:17 PMJul 3, 10:17 PM

26.45%chance

227156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

600

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

37.81%chance

92116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

780

Aella finds husband via her $100k bounty?

Apr 22, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.83%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

What is Dragon's current (1089) bounty?

Aug 16, 1:48 AMAug 23, 1:43 AM

201138

OptionProbability

[5,500,000,000 ; 6,000,000,000)

[6,000,000,000 ; inf)

[5,000,000,000 ; 5,500,000,000)

[none or 0 ; 5,000,000,000)

49

26

21

3

Will the Tick Tock Clock upwarp $1000 bounty be claimed before 2036?

Sep 23, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.51%chance

4665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

101

Who will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?

Feb 18, 1:32 AMApr 26, 6:34 PM

10654

OptionProbability

Weegee

Benji

Karin

Other

Slipperynip

Parsee (秋珈嶺奈)

Treybordo

cjrokokomero

GTM

Cheese

23

17

15

9

8

6

5

5

5

5

Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?

Dec 21, 10:29 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.21%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

957

Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.)

Oct 8, 6:47 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

52.09%chance

17524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

904

Will the New York Times adopt bounties to make articles publicly accessible by 2030?

Dec 2, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.27%chance

8213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

112

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

43

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

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