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Prediction markets for British

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6260929

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Nigel Farage

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson

Richard Tice

Rupert Lowe

Ed Davey

Idris Elba

34

26

19

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?

May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.19%chance

606735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1621

634

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.7%chance

333681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

949

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

51.12%chance

542873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

562

Will @Devansh have a British accent by 2027

Aug 26, 2:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.01%chance

162182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

639

Will Sir David Attenborough (British broadcaster, biologist, historian and author) live to 100 years old?

Aug 3, 9:11 AMMay 8, 10:59 PM

65.94%chance

472079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

819

Golf: Who will win the 2026 Open Championship (British Open)?

Jul 20, 5:58 PMJul 19, 10:59 PM

3555

OptionProbability

Other

Scottie Scheffler

Rory McIlroy

65

18

18

Will Elon Musk testify before the British Parliament before 2026?

Nov 21, 1:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

7337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

25

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

Will there be any British detainees in Guantanamo Bay in 2025?

Jun 11, 10:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.55%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

In 2050, will there still be fourteen British Overseas Territories?

Nov 13, 2:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

16.63%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

52

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

732

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