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Prediction markets for British

Will Sir David Attenborough (British broadcaster, biologist, historian and author) live to 100 years old?

Aug 3, 9:11 AMMay 8, 10:59 PM

93.71%chance

575035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3923

332

Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?

Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.17%chance

364484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

895

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will @Devansh have a British accent by 2027

Aug 26, 2:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.01%chance

162182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

639

Will the US grant British Jews asylum before EOY 2028?

Jan 19, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.5%chance

61195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2099

477

Which of the current hosts of the Great British Baking Show will leave first?

Nov 28, 7:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4709

OptionProbability

Prue Leith

Paul Hollywood

Noel Fielding

Alison Hammond

99

0

0

0

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will the british public be more Trans-supportive in 2026?

May 26, 8:05 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

40%chance

13142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

In 2035, will there still be fourteen British Overseas Territories?

Nov 13, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20.87%chance

385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

42

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

732

Will wild moose return to the British Isles by 2060

Oct 21, 2:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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