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Prediction markets for Building

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.07%chance

589366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

1018

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

Jun 13, 11:35 PMDec 30, 3:44 AM

1077624

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Other

A Chinese lab

Other U.S. source

Anthropic

Meta (formerly Facebook)

35

22

20

8

7

6

2

Will Saudi Arabia build a structure at least 100m x 100m x 1000m before 2040

Aug 2, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

266623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

138

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174409

Will an elected US Federal official express that "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" before 2026?

Jul 3, 5:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.68%chance

152245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

745

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

522073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

151225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

625

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.41%chance

121096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will one of the Trump Tower buildings in the United States be renamed before 2030?

Jan 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

50.28%chance

18726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

569

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will Montreal remove its 233m height limit on buildings?

Aug 4, 1:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.05%chance

9199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

88

Will Embraer announce a program to build a competitor for the 737/A320 in the next 5 years?

Nov 10, 11:08 AMNov 17, 9:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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