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Prediction markets for Bund

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.74%chance

192320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.95%chance

171560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2131

469

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

40%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will a popular contract break AA bundlers (e.g. ERC4337) via usage of EIP-1153 by end of 2025?

Jan 30, 5:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.35%chance

2443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

42

Will the recent change to the law on federal election that just passed the Bundestag be overturned by the Federal Court?

Mar 18, 2:54 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

15.93%chance

9359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344

97

Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

63%chance

7305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Will Jens Spahn step down as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag in 2025?

Jun 25, 1:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.1%chance

8232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

Player breaks Lewandowski's scoring record next Bundesliga season?

May 26, 1:17 AMMay 25, 1:16 AM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Which team will be the next 1. Bundesliga newcomer (after Holstein Kiel)?

May 23, 1:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2100

OptionProbability

SV Elversberg

1. FC Magdeburg

Wehen Wiesbaden

Jahn Regensburg

VfL Osnabrück

Erzgebirge Aue

SC Verl

SV Sandhausen

Viktoria Köln

Würzburger Kickers

Other

14

13

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Borussia Dortmund's womens football team complete their speedrun and make it to the 1. Bundesliga by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:28 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

60%chance

384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

123

Will there be a >7 team tournament between MLS and Serie A or MLS and Bundesliga by 2030?

Aug 5, 3:20 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

22.8%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

47

Will Heye Groß win the Verdienstorden der Bundesrepublik Deutschland by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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