OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
⥠25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
⥠1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds â¹7.5 lakh crore
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
123
A country declares war on Israel
The U.S. suffers â¥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operationâdefined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for â¥72 hours
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes â¥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwanâs territorial sea or airspace
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
A peace treaty ending the EthiopiaâTigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Iran loses territory
Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in â¥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in â¥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to â¥90 % U-235
Iran undergoes a regime change
Sudanese Civil War ends
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israelâs use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Israel loses territory
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any country leaves NATO
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
China formally declares war on another country
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Successful military coup in Venezuela
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
United States formally declares war on another country
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
USA leaves NATO
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on Iran
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
Iranian troops enter Israel
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
A country declares war on United States
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a stateâs armed forces or civilian population
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
92
92
87
84
84
84
82
75
69
65
63
63
62
59
51
51
48
47
47
47
47
46
45
45
45
45
42
42
42
40
40
39
39
38
37
36
36
36
36
36
34
34
32
32
31
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
26
26
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
1
0
0
OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
Room temperature superconductor discovered
UK has a queen again
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
Olympics hosted in Japan again
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Batman enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
human dies on the moon
African company or country lands on moon
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
Olympics hosted in Africa
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
Pickleball in the Olympics
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO (after 2026)
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
USA Adds 51st state
ChatGPT 10 releases
Superman enters the public domain
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Blood Meridian movie release
Destiny retires from regular streaming
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Windows 11 end support date
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
The first $10T market cap company
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
1500 Pokemon Released
Civilization 8 releases
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
South Park ends
Chicago ends on Broadway
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
Xi no longer in power in China
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Simpsons ends
Iceland Bans Whaling
Another MLB perfect game pitched
1300 Pokemon Released
Sagrada Familia Church completed
One piece manga ends
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Human walks on moon again
Trump Dies
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Skibidi Toilet ends
a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
ChatGPT 7 releases
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Shrek 5 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
ChatGPT 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
78
78
76
76
75
74
72
70
69
67
66
66
66
63
62
62
61
59
59
58
58
57
56
55
55
54
53
52
51
50
50
49
48
48
47
45
44
43
42
42
41
41
40
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
36
36
36
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
29
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
22
21
21
20
20
20
18
17
17
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1785
825
OptionProbability
2030
2029
Other
2031
Demolished
2028
2027
25
24
17
15
10
8
2
OptionProbability
Vilnius TV Tower, Vilnius
Tokyo Tower, Tokyo
Abeno Harukas, Osaka
Eiffel Tower, Paris
Tsūtenkaku, Osaka
Lotte World Tower, Seoul
22 Bishopsgate, London
The Shard, London
Tokyo Skytree, Tokyo
Sunshine 60, Tokyo
Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building, Tokyo
Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, Tokyo
Bunkyo Civic Center, Tokyo
Osaka Prefectural Government Sakishima Building, Osaka
Namsan Seoul Tower, Seoul
Burj Khalifa, Dubai
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
36
36
33
20
20
15
15
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
202
121
OptionVotes
YES
NO
116
97

