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OptionProbability
Donald Trump talks about the case
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Mangione extradited to NY in 2024
Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecutors seek the death penalty
Luigi gets a marriage proposal
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Defense requests change in venue
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione
Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family
Defense seeks competence evaluation
“JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered
Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Suspect makes a confession
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Mangione represents himself in all hearings
Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)
The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
58
54
43
42
37
31
23
22
21
18
15
15
13
11
6
6
2
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Government seeks the death penalty
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Gag order imposed on case participants
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Defense requests change in venue
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Court grants competency evaluation
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Mangione attempts suicide
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
100
100
97
79
78
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
31
31
31
27
25
22
20
20
20
18
14
11
OptionProbability
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Defense requests change in venue
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Court grants competency evaluation
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Gag order imposed on case participants
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
100
100
100
69
68
63
55
53
52
48
48
48
48
48
45
43
41
37
37
37
37
31
31
31
22
20
20
17
17
8