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Prediction markets for Çan

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.88%chance

19270680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5587

1699

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.36%chance

18925011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

510

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

11121915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

1464

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85%chance

8420690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

555

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

72.93%chance

302352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

383

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?

Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.46%chance

24640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2026

1864

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