DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
War Ends in June
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
Israel government dissolves
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
A second cease-fire is announced
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
92
77
66
64
56
49
44
43
42
40
40
38
36
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
30
28
27
25
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
13
13
13
12
11
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
3
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
21324
8927
OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
US military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded
Chinese mainland bombed
Taiwan surrenders
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Japanese military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
China attacks Japan
Food shortages in China
Oil shortages in China
Philippines attacked by Chinese
Guam attacked by Chinese
Philippines allows use of airbases
South Korea allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Japan attacked by Chinese
South Korean military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Indian military intervention
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
US destroys TSMC factories
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
75
70
68
61
56
56
55
54
54
48
48
48
47
47
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
33
33
33
31
28
24
19
12
10
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
USA leaves NATO
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
89
86
82
77
77
75
71
68
67
63
62
59
59
59
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
49
47
47
47
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
19
19
18
18
15
14
14
14
13
13
11
9
9
8
8
6
6
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2844
352
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4737
211
OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war
The U.S. goes to war with Iran
Ayatollah Khamenei is deposed
The US sinks at least one Iranian navy vessel
Crude oil prices top $100
The Strait of Hormuz is closed
At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed
Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed
World War 3 starts
At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
98
72
39
34
20
15
11
10
4
3
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3004
333
OptionProbability
Italian mainland to Sicily (Strait of Messina)
Scottish mainland to Orkney
Bohai Strait crossing, China
Chinese mainland to Hainan (Qiongzhou Strait)
Suðuroy to Sandoy, Faroe Islands
Great Britain to the Isle of Wight
Egypt to Saudi Arabia
Russian mainland to Sakhalin
Finland to Estonia
India to Sri Lanka (Palk Strait)
North Island to South Island, New Zealand (Cook Strait)
Sakhalin to Hokkaido
Java to Sumatra, Indonesia (Sunda Strait)
Morocco to Spain/Gibraltar (Strait of Gibraltar)
Great Britain to Ireland (Irish Sea)
Great Britain to the Isle of Man
Yemen to Dijbouti/Eritrea (Bab-el-Mandeb)
Japan to South Korea
Peninsular Malaysia to Sumatra (Malacca Strait)
Sicily to Tunisia (Strait of Sicily)
Russia to Alaska (Bering Strait)
Chinese mainland to Taiwan (Taiwan Strait)
90
69
69
69
69
63
63
59
59
51
50
41
31
28
25
20
20
20
20
14
13
3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1616
556
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1011
959
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1220
820