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Prediction markets for Cannes

Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026?

Aug 28, 8:56 PMApr 21, 5:59 AM

2.46%chance

2310683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6927

510

Will cannabis be decriminalised in New Zealand by 2027?

Oct 14, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

14.25%chance

343804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1978

526

Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?

Dec 6, 2:40 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

68.2%chance

312055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

When will recreational cannabis be Federally legalised in Australia?

Jan 14, 1:34 PMJan 21, 3:59 PM

91805

OptionProbability

2026 - 2030

2030 - 2040

After 2040

2025

49

30

20

3

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will Aileen Cannon be confirmed to the Supreme Court by 2029?

Jul 15, 4:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.27%chance

141455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 13, 12:06 AM

21.52%chance

171106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

524

In which year will France legalize recreational usage of cannabis ?

Mar 22, 9:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

27.28%chance

10331

OptionProbability

NO

YES

449

411

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.36%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

949

Will a tea, cream or paste be developed or recommended for Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms by 2029?

May 15, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.81%chance

494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

24 months after Cannabis is rescheduled will the medical community develop an effective CHS diagnostic tests?

May 15, 5:02 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

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