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Prediction markets for Cannes

Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026?

Aug 28, 8:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

3.39%chance

9634146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5415

555

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

6.43%chance

497231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3816

262

Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?

Dec 6, 2:40 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

71.34%chance

565159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1578

634

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

261713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Will Aileen Cannon be confirmed to the Supreme Court by 2029?

Jul 15, 4:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

151555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

452

Nick Cannon has 2 dozen kids before he croaks?

Jul 10, 9:48 AMJul 10, 9:47 AM

22.06%chance

41438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

In which year will France legalize recreational usage of cannabis ?

Mar 22, 9:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

36.36%chance

13414

OptionProbability

NO

YES

500

301

Will "Do not conquer what you cannot defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 16, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

28.97%chance

6310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

454

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.36%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

949

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?

May 23, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

266

OptionProbability

0-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9+

20

20

20

20

20

Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 15, 9:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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