Capitol News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

Evan permabanned from Manifold

Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

Charlie Kirk dies

Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

South Park does an episode that alludes to it

Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

Another political assassination (either side)

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

arson attack against gender clinic

BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

80s-style moral panic over furries

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

Information reward money paid

high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

At least one furry convention canceled

Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

TPUSA supports a gun control bill

Any Democratic politician is arrested

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

Any news organization is shut down

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

South Park canceled

NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

Kash Patel fired

At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

America becomes a one-party GOP state.

5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

11-30

61-100

More than 100

31-60

1-10

9-16

17-32

33-64

5-8

65-128

1

2-4

129-256

257-512

513+

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES