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Prediction markets for Caribbean islands

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Which territories will the USA acquire by 2050?

Jan 1, 10:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

163316

OptionProbability

any part of the Moon

any part of Antarctica

any Pacific Island

Panama Canal Zone

Greenland

any Caribbean Island

Canada

Mexico

62

34

27

26

25

24

15

7

Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

94.76%chance

13757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

934

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there still be at least six Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

88.69%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

125

Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:03 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

107

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