Carrington News

NASA and IBM Launch Surya AI Model With 16% More Accurate Solar Storm Forecasts and Two-Hour Advance Warning

5 months ago

What will happen during Trump's second term?

Nov 8, 3:31 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

8010277

OptionProbability

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

Drone strike in Mexico by US

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

Significant Rogue AI Incident

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

A human walks on the Moon

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Supreme Court packing

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

Nuclear weapon detonation

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

100

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?

May 31, 7:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

266576

OptionProbability

98-100

94-96

96-98

68-70

70-72

72-74

74-76

76-78

78-80

80-82

82-84

84-86

86-88

88-90

90-92

92-94

66-68

0-2

2-4

4-6

6-8

8-10

10-12

12-14

14-16

16-18

18-20

20-22

22-24

24-26

26-28

28-30

30-32

32-34

34-36

36-38

38-40

40-42

42-44

44-46

46-48

48-50

50-52

52-54

54-56

56-58

58-60

60-62

62-64

64-66

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Oct 26, 11:39 PMNov 3, 3:59 AM

59.78%chance

373702

OptionVotes

YES

1340

654

If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?

Jun 12, 8:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.71%chance

141561

OptionVotes

YES

1517

659

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

191491

OptionProbability

0-40

40-80

80-120

120-160

160-200

280-320

320-360

360-400

400-440

440-480

480-520

520-560

560-600

600-640

640-680

680-720

720-760

760-800

800-840

840-880

880-920

920-960

200-240

240-280

960-1000

1000-1040

1040-1080

1080-1120

1120-1160

1160-1200

1200-1240

1240-1280

1280-1320

1320-1360

1360-1400

1400-1440

1440-1480

1480-1520

1520-1560

1560-1600

1600-1640

1640-1680

1680-1720

1720-1760

1760-1800

1800-1840

1840-1880

1880-1920

1920-1960

1960-2000

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Mar 19, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

12995

OptionVotes

YES

1521

905

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

YES

1566

638

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM

56.16%chance

17891

OptionVotes

YES

1132

884

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

12550

OptionVotes

YES

3605

3380

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Feb 29, 12:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.94%chance

21515

OptionVotes

YES

1193

896

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

Dec 29, 11:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.84%chance

10354

OptionVotes

YES

1018

808

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would you still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:33 AM

130

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What will happen during Trump's second term?

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would you still be alive in a year?

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