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Prediction markets for Catalonia

What countries will join the UN before 2030

Apr 2, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

325071

OptionProbability

Bougainville

Palestine

Kosovo

Somaliland

Western Sahara

Sakha (Yakutia)

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Transnistria

Scotland

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Catalonia

Greenland

ROC (Taiwan)

Siberia

Chechnya (Ichkeriya, Nokhchiicho)

29

29

9

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

Which country will be the next to become an official member state of the United Nations?

Apr 24, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

413502

OptionProbability

Bougainville

Somaliland

Biafra

Other

Kosovo

Aden (under any name such as South Yemen)

East African Federation

Palestine

Kurdistan

Taiwan

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Greenland

Scotland

Catalonia

Holy See / Vatican City

Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

Transnistria

27

16

14

14

7

5

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.2%chance

252207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

781

What will be the next UN Member state?

Jul 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

361798

OptionProbability

No new members

Bougainville

Other

Somaliland

Transnistria

Palestine

South Ossetia

Biafra

Nagorno-Karabakh

Catalonia

Puerto Rico

Taiwan

New Caledonia

Kosovo

Northern Cyprus

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Greenland

Quebec

Scotland

East African Federation

Siberia

Tatarstan

Western Sahara

Abkhazia

Wales

Northern Ireland

Crimea

Basque Country

Russia

Korea

Vatican City

34

21

7

5

5

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Catalonia leave Spain before 2040?

May 29, 9:56 AMJan 1, 12:00 PM

17.47%chance

261606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1649

780

Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?

Apr 1, 10:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

111001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

884

Will Catalunya leave Spain by 2040?

Jan 24, 8:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.67%chance

15902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1601

835

Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?

Nov 8, 5:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

93%chance

9809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

420

69

Will Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)

Dec 24, 3:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.48%chance

15540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

97

Will Catalonia hold another independence vote by 2030?

Jun 8, 2:50 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

30.3%chance

12464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

60

Which of these countries will be the first independent?

Aug 15, 7:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17389

OptionProbability

Scotland

Catalonia

Corsica

North Ireland

Tibet

Hong Kong

54

22

9

9

3

3

Which of Catalonia, Scotland, or Quebec will achieve independence first?

Oct 26, 3:50 AMOct 27, 6:59 AM

14172

OptionProbability

Scotland

Quebec

Catalonia

69

17

14

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