Center Point News

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

YES

1969

508

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038418

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

271840

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

YES

1251

800

[Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where the Russo-Ukrainian War is over by end 2025?

Aug 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8665

OptionProbability

Oil prices are $120/bbl or more (Spot Crude, IMF database)

NATO officially deployed into the conflict

Trump is POTUS

Israel-Hamas War is also over

Ukraine is in NATO

China has invaded Taiwan

Elon Musk has fled any criminal charges or sought asylum in any country

The US is in a state of civil war

Harris is POTUS

Zelenskyy and Putin are both alive

Is Donald Trump already suffering the effects of dementia?

May 5, 8:01 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

9%chance

12350

OptionVotes

YES

318

Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Feb 16, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.66%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

250

Will "Communities" still be prominently featured in the main WhatsApp navigation bar?

Dec 20, 4:06 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

35.35%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will any spacecraft beat Huygens's record for farthest landing from Earth before 2040?

Feb 7, 6:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.91%chance

336

OptionVotes

YES

117

101

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Jul 12, 5:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

325

OptionProbability

Yes

...What?

Will the median center of the US population still be in Indiana in 2030?

Apr 15, 6:51 AMApr 22, 6:59 AM

54.61%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Center Point News

Prediction markets for Center Point

Prediction markets for Center Point

Prediction markets for Center Point

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

[Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where the Russo-Ukrainian War is over by end 2025?

Is Donald Trump already suffering the effects of dementia?

Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?

Will "Communities" still be prominently featured in the main WhatsApp navigation bar?

Will any spacecraft beat Huygens's record for farthest landing from Earth before 2040?

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Will the median center of the US population still be in Indiana in 2030?

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