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Top stories

Russian Fuel Prices Surge Amid Ukrainian Refinery Attacks, Fuel Shortage, Shipment Block, and Labor Restrictions

Russian Fuel Prices Surge Amid Ukrainian Refinery Attacks, Fuel Shortage, Shipment Block, and Labor Restrictions

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Central Asia

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

101589

OptionProbability

South-East Asia

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Oceania

South Asia

North America

Middle East & Northern Africa

East Asia

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Sub-Saharan Africa

South America

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

45

36

13

12

11

11

11

10

10

10

9

9

7

Will the European Badger (Meles meles) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 27, 9:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.29%chance

8467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

832

401

Next renaming of a major city in Russia?

Jun 10, 4:21 PMJan 1, 5:11 PM

7415

OptionProbability

City in Europe annexed and renamed

Volgograd → Stalingrad

Other

City in Caucasus annexed and renamed

City in Central Asia annexed and renamed

No city renamed before 2050

St Petersburg → Putingrad or similar

St Petersburg → Leningrad

St Petersburg → Petrograd

Moscow → any new name

30

14

9

8

8

8

6

6

6

5

Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:00 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

8236

OptionProbability

North America

Asia and Australasia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

95

88

66

66

66

46

39

Will Luria replicate?

Jun 10, 4:13 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

24.95%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

91

Will the population of Central and Southern Asia exceed 2.75 billion this century?

Nov 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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