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Prediction markets for Central China

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 9:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.45%chance

19227183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1888

863

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2025?

Dec 31, 1:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.32%chance

383250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

496

117

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2030?

Dec 31, 1:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.8%chance

261164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

785

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

191028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

830

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028?

Dec 31, 1:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.84%chance

23903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

135

Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 1:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.63%chance

21587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

133

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.08%chance

7199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

106

Will Xi Jinping be either General Secretary or Chairman when he dies?

Nov 30, 3:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.33%chance

6182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

59

Will Chinese EV make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027?

Jan 21, 8:57 PMJan 28, 10:59 PM

88.55%chance

3140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

53

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.97%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

187

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

Aug 31, 3:03 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

37.81%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

100

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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