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Prediction markets for Central Government

Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

8.82%chance

262117289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3216

311

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.69%chance

723954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

742

Will the UK's AI Foundation Models Taskforce survive the Labor party for a year?

Sep 18, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.76%chance

283083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1982

791

New country buys Bitcoin in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.99%chance

151645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.85%chance

61510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

720

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Jail or prison on the moon any time through 2033

Sep 20, 5:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.73%chance

19835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

927

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

18516

OptionProbability

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

3 to 4 years

Full 4-year term or more

6 to 12 months

Less than 6 months

37

27

21

12

2

1

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

36.31%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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