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Top stories

Indonesia’s BMKG Warns of Heavy Rain as Tropical Disturbance 90W Builds

Natural Disasters

Indonesia’s BMKG Warns of Heavy Rain as Tropical Disturbance 90W Builds

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Central

Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?

Nov 20, 12:30 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5.65%chance

15412464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2777

32

Will the Central Bank of Argentina exist on January 1 2030?

Nov 21, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.71%chance

293286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

748

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

262608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

719

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2028?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

211613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2047

791

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.25%chance

131372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

519

Will the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?

Apr 5, 6:48 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13.28%chance

281312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

894

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

241227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

626

Will the U.S. have a central bank digital currency by 2030?

Mar 23, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

12775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

548

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2033?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.37%chance

20708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

941

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

17311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

904

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

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