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Prediction markets for Chatbot Arena

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 1, 5:31 PMAug 31, 6:01 PM

311222149

OptionProbability

Google

xAI

OpenAI

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

Other

93

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78166379

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

OpenAI (May or later)

Google (after 2.5 release)

DeepSeek

Moonshot

Anthropic

xAI (April or later)

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

95

74

12

9

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Mar 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12694005

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Anthropic

Meta

Mistral

44

28

10

10

6

1

0

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9889403

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

38

29

12

10

9

3

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.62%chance

4347927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117528

88845

Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.17%chance

4119184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9590

126

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Mar 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.61%chance

506164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2902

345

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Jul 4, 5:01 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

525987

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

73

14

2

2

2

2

2

2

Which company has best AI model end of 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Aug 8, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

194737

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Moonshot AI

Alibaba

Other

54

21

13

3

2

2

2

1

1

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.55%chance

22520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

306

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