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OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Jeff Bezos
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Other
Sam Altman
Ilya Sutskever
Robert Caro
Donald Trump
Gwern Branwen
Benjamin Netanyahu
JD Vance
Jensen Huang
Kamala Harris
Buffett
Joe Biden
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
pope Francis
Peter Thiel
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Sarah Paine
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Narendra Modi
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Taylor Swift
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Satoshi Nakomoto
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
roon
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
Geoffrey Hinton
Scott Alexander
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Terence Tao
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Tim Cook
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
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13
11
11
9
7
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
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90
87
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83
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77
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62
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2
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2
2
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2
1
1
OptionProbability
2030 and later
2027
2026
2025
2028
2029
2024
50
16
11
8
7
6
1
OptionProbability
2025-02-26: TOTTENHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-01: MANCHESTER CITY vs PLYMOUTH (FA Cup)
2025-04-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs LEICESTER (Premier League)
2025-04-12: MANCHESTER CITY vs CRYSTAL PALACE (Premier League)
2025-04-19: EVERTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-30: BOURNEMOUTH vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-26: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-05-03: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-04-28: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-05-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-06-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs WYDAD AC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs WYDAD AC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-04-26: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-27: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-06-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL AIN (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL AIN (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-03-29: BOURNEMOUTH vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-05: MANCHESTER UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-10: SOUTHAMPTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-08: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-15: MANCHESTER CITY vs BRIGHTON (Premier League)
2025-04-06: MANCHESTER UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
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99
99
99
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99
99
99
99
99
98
98
98
98
98
96
96
96
95
95
50
6
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-04-27: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-06-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs WYDAD AC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL AIN (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-05-20: MANCHESTER CITY vs BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
2025-05-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
2025-08-16: WOLVES vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
2025-09-27: MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY (Premier League)
2025-10-04: BRENTFORD vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-16: WOLVES vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-30: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
2025-08-30: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-13: MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED (Premier League)
2025-09-20: ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-27: MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY (Premier League)
2025-10-04: BRENTFORD vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-10-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs EVERTON (Premier League)
2025-08-16: WOLVES vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
2025-08-30: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-13: MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED (Premier League)
2025-09-20: ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-27: MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY (Premier League)
2025-10-04: BRENTFORD vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-10-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs EVERTON (Premier League)
2025-08-16: WOLVES vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
2025-08-30: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-13: MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED (Premier League)
2025-09-20: ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-27: MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY (Premier League)
2025-10-04: BRENTFORD vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-10-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs EVERTON (Premier League)
2025-08-16: WOLVES vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM (Premier League)
2025-08-30: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-13: MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED (Premier League)
2025-09-20: ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-27: MANCHESTER CITY vs BURNLEY (Premier League)
2025-10-04: BRENTFORD vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-10-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs EVERTON (Premier League)
2025-10-25: ASTON VILLA vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-11-01: MANCHESTER CITY vs BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-08-09: PALERMO vs MANCHESTER CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-08-31: BRIGHTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-09-13: MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED (Premier League)
2025-09-20: ARSENAL vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-10-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs EVERTON (Premier League)
2025-05-16: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-16: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-16: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-10: SOUTHAMPTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-05-17: CRYSTAL PALACE vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-07-01: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL-HILAL SAUDI FC (FIFA Club World Cup)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
83
76
76
76
76
76
71
50
50
50
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50
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50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
24
24
24
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1000
939
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1439
947
OptionVotes
YES
NO
113
89
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1022
979
OptionVotes
NO
YES
262
250
OptionVotes
YES
NO
250
40
