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Prediction markets for City of Seattle

Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?

Mar 22, 10:58 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

101610

OptionProbability

New York City

Chicago

Boston

Seattle

Washington DC

Portland

San Francisco

59

58

57

57

55

50

43

Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

120

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

3145

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

NYC

23

18

12

12

12

12

10

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

49.39%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

Who will be elected Seattle City Attorney in 2025?

Jan 14, 8:14 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

3110

OptionProbability

Other

Rory O'Sullivan

Ann Davison

44

34

23

Will a new episode of The Grand Tour be released in 2025?

Jan 24, 5:11 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

23.43%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

37

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

47.04%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

943

Who will win the 2025 Seattle City Council Position 2 election?

Jul 28, 7:05 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Eddie Lin

Jeanie Chunn

Adonis Ducksworth

Other

40

20

20

20

Roadtrip: first leg favorite state

Aug 2, 8:03 PMSep 20, 8:01 PM

00

OptionProbability

Montana

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wyoming

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Illinois

Indiana

Other

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

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