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Prediction markets for City of Seattle

Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?

Mar 22, 10:58 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

141708

OptionProbability

Seattle

Chicago

New York City

Boston

Washington DC

Portland

San Francisco

62

58

57

57

53

50

43

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

59%chance

15419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

4305

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

SF

NYC

25

15

13

13

13

11

11

Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

120

Roadtrip: Gulf leg favorite state

Jan 10, 3:40 AMApr 2, 2:29 AM

475

OptionProbability

Louisiana (TBD)

Alabama (Mobile)

Mississippi (TBD)

Arkansas (TBD)

33

24

22

21

Which Seattle team is the best historically

Jan 19, 5:49 AM

20

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