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Prediction markets for Clay

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

174184046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106443

1710

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35%chance

18984219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4814

111

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

52.37%chance

12219576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

807

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.21%chance

10010501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3855

1987

By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem?

Dec 4, 1:14 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

2.49%chance

309435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4504

760

Who Will the Last Strawhat Be?

Mar 10, 2:40 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

748377

OptionProbability

Loki

Vivi

Jewelry Bonney

Yamato

A new character who is yet to be revealed.

Vegapunk Lilith

Other

The Crew is full. No more Strawhats

Smoker

Carrot

Law

Kizaru

Boa Hancock

Gin

Stussy

Charlotte Pudding

Shirahoshi

Bon Clay

Woop Slap

Pandaman

93

75

42

42

32

29

28

25

22

17

15

10

9

8

7

6

6

4

4

4

Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Jan 6, 8:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.39%chance

201374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

105

Which novel will win a Hugo award in 2025

Apr 7, 5:01 AMAug 15, 11:59 PM

8922

OptionProbability

The Ministry of Time - Kaliane Bradley

The Tainted Cup - Robert Jackson Bennett

Service Model - Adrian Tchaikovsky

Alien Clay - Adrian Tchaikovsky

A Sorceress Comes to Call - T. Kingfisher

Someone You Can Build a Nest In - John Wiswell

34

22

12

12

10

10

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?

May 12, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.97%chance

13879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Bon Clay Stock

May 5, 12:56 PMMay 5, 9:59 PM

13701

OptionProbability

NO

YES

421

230

Which Coaches Are Out In The Sun Belt Conference? Coaching Carousel 2025-26

Jun 6, 9:29 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

3361

OptionProbability

Appalachian State - Dowell Loggains

Coastal Carolina - Tim Beck

Georgia Southern - Clay Helton

Georgia State - Dell McGee

James Madison - Bob Chesney

Marshall - Tony Gibson

Old Dominion - Ricky Rahne

Arkansas State - Butch Jones

Louisiana - Michael Desormeaux

South Alabama - Major Applewhite

Southern Miss - Charles Huff

Texas State - G. J. Kinne

Troy - Gerad Parker

Louisiana–Monroe - Bryant Vincent

40

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

35

Will the Clay Foundation adjust for inflation?

Nov 16, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.94%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

112

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