Comfort News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

17782

9207

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.13%chance

293232985

OptionVotes

YES

4147

1170

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

1721

1121

Will humanity survive until 2100?

Mar 26, 12:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

82.77%chance

7117769

OptionVotes

YES

1657

934

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Mar 4, 2:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.11%chance

896285

OptionVotes

YES

1053

655

Matter and energy are finite within our universe.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

341512

OptionVotes

YES

1158

805

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Sep 2, 7:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.74%chance

27643

OptionVotes

YES

1118

783

Next "comfortable" US Presidential Election win?

Aug 21, 12:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11379

OptionProbability

2028

2040 or later

2032

2036

2024

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Mar 24, 2:43 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

38.25%chance

22353

OptionVotes

YES

1072

855

Which of these actions will reasonably improve my social life by eoy 2025? (add answers)

Apr 8, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8149

OptionProbability

playing online games with friends

meeting up with a friend and building a pc

Engaging in conversations with others in social events, trying to get out of your comfort zone

Being on Manifold

joining chess club(1 hour train ride away)

joining the local badminton club(i dont particularly like badminton)

livestreaming on twitch

recording 10 minutes of talking to a camara, watching that, and trying to correct speech patterns

Did Donald Trump participate in or give aid and comfort to an insurrection following the 2020 election?

Nov 5, 8:35 PM

570

Comfort News

Prediction markets for Comfort

Prediction markets for Comfort

Prediction markets for Comfort

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will humanity survive until 2100?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Matter and energy are finite within our universe.

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Next "comfortable" US Presidential Election win?

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Which of these actions will reasonably improve my social life by eoy 2025? (add answers)

Did Donald Trump participate in or give aid and comfort to an insurrection following the 2020 election?

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