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Top stories

Flash Floods Threaten Chicago as Torrential Storms Prompt Airport Ground Stops

Natural Disasters

Flash Floods Threaten Chicago as Torrential Storms Prompt Airport Ground Stops

Authors

10

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Cook

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.79%chance

11415066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

1002

Will a crossing of the Cook Strait, between New Zealand's North and South Islands, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 5, 9:21 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.04%chance

181033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

911

Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?

Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

9.76%chance

22932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1787

808

Will Tim Cook continue as CEO of Apple through 2030?

Jan 8, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.03%chance

15548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

331

88

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2025?

Jul 17, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.09%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

37

👍👎 is usa cooked [market index]

Feb 20, 4:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.26%chance

5445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

746

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

24.19%chance

12328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

161

Will Tim Cook retire by 2030

Oct 19, 4:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.25%chance

14310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

973

Will Satya Nadella outlast Tim Cook as a CEO?

May 2, 10:35 AMMay 9, 9:59 PM

82.94%chance

5123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

<10% US households cook own food manually by 2040

Jun 13, 12:02 AMJun 13, 12:02 AM

17.12%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will I fly to New Mexico to buy chilis at Costco and cook @billga's Green Chile Stew before Souper Tuesday 2032?

Mar 26, 2:29 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

65.03%chance

9103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

205

Will Tim Cook be alive through the end of 2050?

Jan 23, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.6%chance

512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

102

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