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Top stories

Clashes Erupt in Deir ez-Zour Between Syrian Democratic Forces and Government Troops Despite March Integration Deal

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Dama

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

72.18%chance

377218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

621

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Tesla offers a car & mode where Tesla has legal liability for any damages that occur while self-driving by end 2026

Oct 24, 7:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.32%chance

81502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

976

140

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.49%chance

291424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

914

The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.

Jun 7, 5:52 PMJun 7, 5:46 PM

48.81%chance

4546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

976

Will the Common Fallow Deer, aka European Fallow Deer (Dama dama) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 17, 8:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.78%chance

7502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

903

385

Conditional on a large-scale nuclear exchange involving the continental United States, will my house be hit with an EMP severe enough to damage any of our electronics?

Oct 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.41%chance

10347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

114

Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?

Sep 29, 11:54 PMSep 29, 11:52 PM

38.2%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Which countries will mostly avoid direct damage in World War 3? [add responses]

Jan 17, 9:16 PMJan 25, 8:59 PM

656

OptionProbability

Vatican

Uruguay

Sealand

Singapore

USA

71

59

41

40

36

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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