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Prediction markets for District One

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.63%chance

123814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

817

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15.77%chance

242953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2311

433

Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?

Apr 7, 4:49 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

23.21%chance

51566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1819

550

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 29, 7:59 AM

10.89%chance

261512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

830

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 5, 6:05 PMNov 5, 6:54 PM

16.1%chance

19829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

937

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will the 120th Congress refuse to seat any members due to a redistricting related dispute?

May 16, 3:01 PMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

30.98%chance

2687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will a Top 50 US public school district officially mandate or adopt an AI assistant for core grading by June 2027?

Jul 14, 11:03 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

27.84%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2040?

Aug 5, 6:07 PMNov 6, 6:54 PM

32%chance

892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

156

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