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Prediction markets for District One

What will happen to Robert Roberson, currently sentenced to death for a "shaken baby syndrome" murder?

Mar 5, 5:16 AMMar 12, 3:59 PM

42775

OptionProbability

Execution date set

Executed

Executed in 2025

Scheduled execution stayed / postponed

Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)

Clemency / commuted to life

Executed in 2026

Released from prison

Dies while on death row (not executed)

100

80

75

30

15

15

15

5

5

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

29.38%chance

231983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Congressional Survivor: Who will be the final member in Congress?

Mar 14, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

221911

OptionProbability

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC (D: NY-14)

Josh Hawley (R: MO)

Rashida Tlaib (D: MI-12)

Jon Ossoff (D: GA)

Maxwell Frost (D: FL-10)

Cori Bush (D: MO-1)

Matt Gaetz (R: FL-1)

38

26

16

8

8

2

1

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 29, 7:59 AM

11.89%chance

251151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

844

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 5, 6:05 PMNov 5, 6:54 PM

16.82%chance

18779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

946

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will the Western Washington US District Court grant the FTC a permanent injunction against Amazon?

Sep 27, 1:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.2%chance

7162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

128

Will there be autonomous school busses in service in the USA by 2035?

Jun 13, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.59%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

55

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2040?

Aug 5, 6:07 PMNov 6, 6:54 PM

32%chance

892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

156

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.99%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

103

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