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Prediction markets for Donetsk Oblast

Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Oct 8, 2:10 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

52.09%chance

835834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

913

Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.97%chance

154587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3313

312

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

31.57%chance

312359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

579

Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Jan 10, 10:43 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

141957

OptionProbability

Sevastopol

Crimea

Donetsk Oblast

Lugansk Oblast

Kherson Oblast

Zaporozhye Oblast

Odessa Oblast

Sumy Oblast

96

95

82

82

68

68

14

12

When will Russia capture Sloviansk?

Jan 26, 2:55 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

61549

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

52

22

22

4

Which regions will Ukraine claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Jan 10, 10:43 PMJul 1, 12:00 AM

51473

OptionProbability

Sumy Oblast

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Kherson Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Luhansk Oblast

Crimea

Sevastopol

Starodubshchyna

Kuban

73

59

59

50

50

50

50

16

2

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of January 2027?

Dec 31, 1:06 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

35.83%chance

13729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

712

When will Ukraine control Konstantinovka?

May 18, 9:01 PMFeb 28, 7:59 PM

9460

OptionProbability

At the end of February 2027

At the end of November 2026

At the end of May 2026

At the end of August 2026

11

6

0

0

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027?

Jun 4, 11:32 PMNov 30, 9:59 PM

40.98%chance

3228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will Russia control Dobropillya by the end of June 2027?

Jun 3, 10:32 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

38.51%chance

3160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

975

Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?

Jun 3, 10:40 PMOct 31, 9:59 PM

60.57%chance

5151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

990

Will Russia control Druzhkivka by the end of September 2027?

Jun 3, 10:36 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

47.61%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

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