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Top stories

Russian Glide-Bomb Strike on Ukraine Prison Kills 17 Inmates

Russian Glide-Bomb Strike on Ukraine Prison Kills 17 Inmates

Authors

27

5 days ago

Ukraine Says Drones Hit Ryazan Refinery as Russia Claims Donetsk Gain

Authors

4

14 hours ago

Putin Says Russian Troops Advancing Along Entire Ukraine Frontline, Ignores Trump Ultimatum Amid Peace Talks

Authors

7

1 day ago

Putin Says Russian Forces Advance Across Entire Ukraine Front

Authors

5

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Donetsk

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

84%chance

25335562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2282

392

Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Oct 8, 2:10 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

56.41%chance

775214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

1005

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.39%chance

242731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2417

702

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

27.66%chance

282312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

674

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

281607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1751

881

Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?

Dec 19, 2:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

11.29%chance

23890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?

Jun 17, 2:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.04%chance

16708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

830

Will Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

10600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

101

Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.83%chance

16574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

96

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

When will Russia capture Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk)?

Jul 20, 2:06 PMApr 1, 12:37 PM

8129

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