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Top stories

Sergey Kuznetsov Arrested as German Authorities Identify Six Ukrainians in Nord Stream Sabotage Amid Fighting in Dnipropetrovsk Region

Sergey Kuznetsov Arrested as German Authorities Identify Six Ukrainians in Nord Stream Sabotage Amid Fighting in Dnipropetrovsk Region

Authors

35

1 year ago

Zelenskyy Presses Putin Dialogue as Ukraine Marks 34th Independence Day

US Foreign Policy

Zelenskyy Presses Putin Dialogue as Ukraine Marks 34th Independence Day

Authors

43

1 year ago

Zelensky Warns Russia Amasses 100,000 Troops Near Pokrovsk Front

Zelensky Warns Russia Amasses 100,000 Troops Near Pokrovsk Front

Authors

5

11 months ago

Russian Forces Capture Kleban-Byk and Sredne in Donetsk; Ukraine Retakes Villages and Acknowledges Russian Entry into Dnipropetrovsk

Authors

20

1 year ago

Heisbourg, Guaino, Kaspi Highlight Military Support Need as Putin Demands Donetsk Surrender; German Chancellor Warns of Future War

Authors

10

1 year ago

Russia Says It Captures Three Settlements, Damages Tanker in Izmail Strike

Authors

15

1 year ago

Russia Claims 300 Ukrainian Drones Downed, Strikes Sapsan Depots

Authors

10

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Marco Rubio Confirms August 18 Meeting with Zelensky, Trump Invites EU and NATO Leaders, Denies US Support for Putin's Donetsk Demand

Authors

7

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Donetsk

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

683152226

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

61

21

11

5

1

1

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

66.07%chance

26538423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1426

660

Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?

Oct 8, 2:10 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

52.09%chance

835834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

913

Will Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 31, 1:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.44%chance

293603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3267

630

Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?

Jan 25, 9:53 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

63.79%chance

142499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

810

Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?

Jun 17, 2:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

191718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

854

Which regions will Ukraine claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Jan 10, 10:43 PMJul 1, 12:00 AM

4983

OptionProbability

Sumy Oblast

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Kherson Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Luhansk Oblast

Crimea

Sevastopol

Starodubshchyna

Kuban

73

59

59

50

50

50

50

16

2

Will Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

10600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

101

Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?

Jun 17, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.13%chance

18599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

111

Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 9:35 PMDec 30, 11:00 PM

14562

OptionProbability

No

Yes

Yes, but Crimea,Donetsk,Luhansk etc. will be under Russia control.

Yes, all territories that Ukraine had before 2014 will be Ukraine again.

82

10

6

2

Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Jan 10, 10:43 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

12200

OptionProbability

Crimea

Donetsk Oblast

Sevastopol

Lugansk Oblast

Kherson Oblast

Zaporozhye Oblast

Odessa Oblast

Sumy Oblast

65

63

62

53

50

50

50

47

Will Ukraine accept a peace deal that cedes contested land in Donetsk and/or Luhansk?

Aug 1, 4:26 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

64.13%chance

10199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

86

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