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Prediction markets for Dura

Will Kevin Durant be a Phoenix Suns player on July 1st 2026?

May 4, 9:32 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

1%chance

7896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?

Dec 19, 2:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

11.29%chance

23890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will Kevin Durant win another NBA championship before he retires?

Feb 23, 6:31 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

15.64%chance

16370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

944

If Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire, will it last the agreed duration?

Mar 11, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

15292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will AI models from company other than OpenAI comes first for a duration of 2 months by end of date?

Sep 22, 8:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7204

OptionProbability

by end of 2027

by end of 2030

by end of 2026

by end of 2025

by end of 2024

69

69

64

53

2

¿Bajará el déficit fiscal argentino 15% del PIB (2023)durante el gobierno de Javier Milei?

Nov 29, 9:07 PMDec 10, 6:59 AM

96.15%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

288

48

If the long reflection begins, will it end within 2x its advertised duration?

Nov 4, 12:06 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

64.72%chance

7117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

94

Will medium duration TIPS yields go below -1% again before 2060?

Dec 17, 2:14 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

30%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

42

No AI prediction on manifold will ever be correct for the duration of this site, except purely bureaucratic changes

Apr 14, 11:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

104

Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?

Mar 12, 4:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.26%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

140

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