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Prediction markets for East Africa
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
23029047
OptionProbability
32
29
24
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months
Mar 14, 4:20 PMJun 30, 2:01 PM
14%chance
389541
OptionVotes
2478
403
OptionProbability
98
25
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.23%chance
304131
OptionVotes
1311
763
Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.92%chance
92626
OptionVotes
4193
4124
OptionProbability
63
18
11
9
Will the East African Federation legally exist by January 1st, 2030?
Jul 1, 4:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
19.51%chance
15401
OptionVotes
990
902
OptionVotes
1053
914
Will the Caracal (Caracal caracal) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 30, 6:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
15.24%chance
6337
OptionVotes
772
408
If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM
85.53%chance
11268
OptionVotes
243
41
Will a middle spotted woodpecker be seen in Britain by the end of 2030?
Apr 8, 2:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
53.52%chance
8103
OptionVotes
154
144
Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?
Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.84%chance
280
OptionVotes
1080
926